Holy hell, this sure is some insane chatter going on these days. The inmates are increasingly looking to take over the asylum, aren’t they? Or are they? The media LOVES to talk ENDLESSLY about CP3 wants this, Dwight wants that, etc. etc. But none of us really know what’s going on. Nor should we unless free agency begins and these guys ‘do what’s best for them’ (to paraphrase Dwight).
We’ve all heard the rumors (that’s all they are now) going back and forth of the Clippers and Celtics talking, and the others about Dwight maybe wanting to team up with CP3 on the Clippers. There’s also the chance that IF the Lakers don’t give a FUCK about the Salary Cap they can bring Chris Paul to the Lakers– He and Dwight both love L.A., but Chris isn’t sold on the Clippers and Don Sterling’s firing of VDN and blaming Chris REALLY made Chris upset (supposedly, according to RUMORS).
But let’s also look at some dollars and cents here. You can toss in draft picks, etc. to ‘sweeten’ a deal, but the fact is salaries must match within 125% either way (for a single contract year, beyond that doesn’t matter), salary cap is a bigger issue to consider for some teams than others (and some owners than others, for that matter), as as future plans. Here’s what I can glean so far:
Lakers: Want to win championships, will spend money like water
Clippers: Want to sell tickets to games and merchandise, uber cheap owner
Celtics: Want to win championships, cautious about money generally
So when you think about it that way, when people are saying that Clippers owner Donald Sterling wants to get this player and that I look at them twice and slap them sideways. You all know it comes down to the dollars, and Sterling doesn’t like to open his checkbook that often. He MASSIVELY overpaid DeAndre Jordan, and now no one wants that guys crappy salary. Blake is a dunking machine who plays no defense and has a terrible shot, WITH A MASSIVE CONTRACT, and needs someone to pass to him, AND he’s got knee issues. Last time we saw a guy like that? AMARE STOUDAMIRE! I think that’s a really REALLY bad omen.
With that said, the Lakers want long term stars, and even with Dwight having had a bad year, HE WAS COMING OFF BACK SURGERY, and we had another shitty coaching transition, and the coach didn’t know how to limit player minutes, etc. etc.
But again… back to the dollars and cents. Dwight is a free agent, Chris Paul is a free agent. Everyone else in the mix is on contracts. Dwight and Chris can each get the most money with their current teams (Dwight: Lakers, Chris: Clippers) including a 5th year. SO… if these guys want to play together either they A) go to the other guy’s team, or B) go somewhere else together (Atlanta or Houston?) and sacrifice that 5th year together… that doesn’t sound like ‘doing what’s best for me’ to me, does it? Even if SOMEHOW they convince their teams to do sign and trades, here are what the other possible tradable guys are making next year:
Pau Gasol – $19.3 mil, 1 year left, solid player but expensive
Steve Nash – $9.3 mil, 2 years left, trailing off skillwise big time
Metta World Peace – $7.7 mil (player option), 1 year left, inconsistent and trailing off
DeAndre Jordan – $11.0 mil, 2 years left, massively overpaid for poor production
Blake Griffin – $16.4 mil, 4 years left, explosive dunker, questionable knees and… that’s it
Jamal Crawford – $5.2 mil, 3 years left, solid perimeter scorer, not bad contract
Eric Bledsoe – $2.6 mil, 2 years left, great backup PG, unsure how he’d fare as starter, cheap for 2 years then may command big jump
Caron Butler – $8.0 mil, 1 year left, disappeared in the playoffs, expiring contract
Paul Pierce – $15.3 mil, 1 year left, on the decline but still really good, expiring value
Kevin Garnett – $11.5 mil, 2 years left, has a no trade clause, will ONLY go to L.A. TEAMS, will only leave if Pierce is getting traded
Jeff Green – $8.7 mil, 3 years left (3rd is player option), picked up his play but is fairly expensive vs. his production as a role player
Courtney Lee – $5.2 mil, 3 years left, similar to Green is young and athletic but lengthy contract for uncertainty
Jason Terry – $5.2 mil, 2 years left, not as hot a shooter as his Mavs days, like a better Steve Blake
So there are some big questions being considered, and most don’t have solid answers:
If Dwight said he’s leaving the Lakers, why would the Lakers agree to a sign-and-trade?
The Lakers have hinted to wanting to remain competitive for Summer 2014. What could they get from the Clippers? Blake Griffin would give them something now, but the Amare comparisons do not bode well for them. Cap room might be a greater consideration. Getting Eric Bledsoe would be nice, but the Lakers don’t even know if they’ll be running D’Antoni’s run-and-gun offense with the even older Kobe, Pau, and Metta (if they don’t amnesty him first) even if Bledsoe and Griffin are on the team.
If the Clippers/Celtics talks are ‘serious’, how can anything happen without the Clippers shipping out DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, and the Celtics shipping out Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce?
KG has already said he won’t waive his no trade clause unless Pierce is gone, and they market to nab Pierce is not that big right now. So IF the Clippers agreed to take Pierce and KG (instantly making themselves much older), the only way (moneywise) the trade could work, and bring Doc Rivers over in the process, would be to send the Celtics DeAndre (who while young is still pretty useless offensively) AND Blake– the latter whom the Clippers said is ‘untouchable’ for the most part. So what is the point of these talks? The Clippers want to impress CP3 and get him to stay by bringing in Doc Rivers to coach and KG to play PF/C… but they’re not willing to trade Blake Griffin… and the Celtics don’t just want DeAndre Jordan, and while getting Eric Bledsoe could be nice, it doesn’t work moneywise, and he and Rondo would be battling it out for who controls the ball, kinda like Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings did in Milwaukee this past season… Oh and KG WON’T waive his no trade clause unless Pierce is being shipped out…. OH AND YOU NEED TO SEND OUT PIERCE AND KG FOR BLAKE AND DEANDRE FOR THE MONEY TO WORK… AAARRGGHHH…. Don Sterling’s idiocy is off the charts here, and the Celtics’ Danny Ainge is smart enough to think about his team’s long term future by just waiting for KG and Pierce’s contracts to expire after next year (well.. Pierce’s, then KG will WANT to go someplace else is just retire before the 2014-15 season).
How can Chris Paul and Dwight Howard ‘realistically’ end up playing together?
In total truth, both players don’t really ‘owe it’ to their latest teams, the Lakers and Clippers, to get a sign-and-trade done in any way. It would just help out their new teams (assuming they go elsewhere) with more room to bring them in, and sign some fresh blood. With that said, IF one of them wants to stay where they are and bring the other in (Chris on the Clippers, brings on Dwight.. Dwight on the Lakers, brings in Chris) they would either have to hope the ‘winning’ team can put the pressure on for a sign and trade, or be willing to take less money one way or another. Here’s the possibilities I can see being considered:
A) CP3 and Dwight on the Lakers – If Chris wants to be a Laker again (after his 47 mins of it 2 years ago before Stern nixed it) it would first be on the Lakers to go WAYYYYY over the salary cap. This has a slim to none chance of happening. Chris would lose on that 4th year by donning the purple and gold, but more importantly his lets say $19.5 mil salary (up from around $17.8 mil last year) would add to the Lakers’ mix of these guys: Kobe at $30.5 mil, Dwight at $20.5 mil (estimated), Pau at $19.3 mil, Nash at $9.3 mil, Metta (likely) at $7.7 mil… and another few mil for others… but that’s JUST the starting lineup! A sign and trade would help the Lakers, but why would the Clippers do that? The Clippers wouldn’t have any interest in Pau (even if he’s an expiring), or willing to take the elder Nash vs. their more than capable Bledsoe who’s younger, probably better, and definitely cheaper (and Don Sterling LOVES cheap!). IF the Lakers were to say ‘fuck it, let’s burn HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS IN SALARY CAP PENALTIES!!’… then this could happen.
B) CP3 and Dwight on the Clippers – This is being bandied about quite a lot lately. Both guys want to stay in L.A., and play together, and the Clippers might be able to force it to happen. IF Dwight just walked straight over, this would be mega expensive for the Clippers. BOTH Chris and Dwight would need new contracts, and Dwight would definitely not get that 5th year, but it would still be a ton of money. Still… is it worth it to him to lose $30 MILLION to stay in the same town? If so, here’s the cost to the Clippers without a sign a trade: CP3 at $19.5 mil, Dwight at $20.5 mil, Griffin at $16.4 mil, DeAndre at $11.0 mil, next highest would be Caron Butler at $8.0 mil…. Eric Bledsoe at just $2.6 mil is cheap and good, but don’t impact the salary cap. But given Don Sterling’s obsession with saving money why would he break the bank to keep Chris Paul when he can just promote Eric Bledsoe and let Chris Paul walk? He then WOULDN’T have to pay nearly $20 mil to BOTH Paul and Howard… saving $40 mil alone on the contracts, and tens of millions more on salary cap penalties (the team would have to go over to bring in role players). In the new CBA’s world of the NBA teams and pretty much afford 2 big stars, 2 medium stars, and a bunch of role players IF they want to stay under the cap (the Lakers don’t usually care). SO…. that means the only want this Clippers could make this happen is to get the Lakers to agree to a sign and trade for Griffin and another $2 to $4 mil piece. The Lakers would say NO WAY to DeAndre Jordan ($11.0 mil) and Caron Butler ($8.0 mil) for Dwight, so Blake it is… but then that means the only other player that would be ‘sweet’ enough might be Bledsoe… who’s a great, cheap player. Good on that… but the Lakers are still wary of Blake who players no D, has no jump shooting, is injury prone, and would slam any chances of cap space later if he’s supposed to be a franchise player– which everyone says he really isn’t worth being…. So…. the Lakers would probably say no here and opt for the cap room, leaving the Clippers to decide if paying an assload is worth it (they’re not the Lakers, but let’s see if they have the balls to play that very expensive game).
C) CP3 and Dwight on the Rockets – These could be the most likely scenarios if they want to play together. The Rockets are a bit tricky because James Harden is making $13.7 mil next year, and while Lin and Omer Asuk are both making just $5.2 mil in 2013-14, in the final 2014-15 of their contracts it balloons up to $15.9 mil each!! Yikes!! Getting both CP3 and Dwight to come over now means they have to find takers for both Lin and Asuk… and NO ONE wants either of them (especially with such painful blow up contracts!!). So a sign and trade might be next to impossible unless James Harden is part of that deal– ironic considering he was the one lobbying to get Dwight over in Houston. If CP3 and Howard walk over they both lose a 5th year worth $25-$30 mil, and even with the ‘Texas saving of no income tax’ it doesn’t matter too much– players pay taxes based on EVERY GAME IN EVERY STATE THEY PLAY IN. A few more games in your home state really don’t make as big an impact as many think it does.
D) CP3 and Dwight on the Hawks – So then there’s Atlanta; the Hawks have a very unique proposition for both CP3 and Dwight, should they want to come over. Josh Smith is off the books, so even if he suddenly wanted to come back to play with buddy Dwight and new friend Chris Paul, they Hawks would tell him to hold up. Smith made $13.2 mil last year and spent all season making it known he wanted out. If Chris and Dwight took up $40 mil in new contracts, the Hawks might not even want to sign Smith. Also, the ONLY big contract on the team next year is Al Horford at $12 mil. The rest of the team is pretty much empty right now… meaning after Dwight and Chris signed up the Hawks could go shopping for cheap role players to add on. Still, with Dwight at C, Horford at his natural PF, and CP3 at PG you’ve got a solid tandem that would challenge LeBron, Bosh, and Wade in the East next season. Again, BOTH Dwight and Chris would have to be willing to sacrifice that 5th year, but as of right now it’s the most likely scenario for them to play together and NOT seek some crazy sign and trade deal. The only small hitch (other than both guys saying goodbye to a 5th year of $25-$30 mil) is Dwight has for some reason not been a fan of playing in his hometown of Atlanta. He’s never elaborated on it, maybe he’s too close to Orlando, but that’s something there. He’d be on his 3rd team in 3 years, but it would be the price to pay for playing alongside Chris Paul.
So anyway, there’s my breakdown of the latest on the Lakers/Clippers/Celtics/Dwight/CP3/KG/Pierce/Griffin/Doc insanity going on these days. Man, I almost miss the pre-Twitter days where we had to wait entire days or weeks for news! 🙂
Welcome back to the ‘Let’s Fix The Lakers’ series of posts. I was listening to Bill Simmons’ B.S. Report today and he and Joe House had some interesting discussion points:
The Lakers and Heat should swap Pau Gasol for Chris Bosh. The trade (costing a bit more for the Heat in salary) would make sense for both team, and be insanely helpful. Pau plays well on the low block inside (where Bynum was clogging it up) and the Heat need that inside presence. Meanwhile, the Lakers need to let Bynum kill the inside while having their PF play as a more 10-15 ft. shooter type (like Bosh is) and with some great athleticism (ditto). Billy Witz of FoxSports.com summed it up nicely (http://bit.ly/LA2z4v):
“Sending Gasol to Miami for Chris Bosh might just be the missing piece for both franchises. The salaries are a close enough match to make it work: Gasol has two years and $38.2 million left on his contract; Bosh has four years (the last two are player options) and $78 million on his. And neither owner, the Heat’s Micky Arison nor the Lakers’ Jerry Buss, is afraid to go all in.”
If the aforementioned trade went down this would still work great if the Lakers then went after a Bynum-for-Howard trade. Dwight would kill on the inside, Bosh would terrorize one mid-range zone, while Kobe would get the other.
While the idea doesn’t fully address the Lakers’ point guard concerns, Simmons also mentioned Nash would likely go to either the Lakers or the Heat next year. However, IF Phil Jackson would take the Heat coaching job (a chance to coach LeBron AND Wade? Hmmm…) then having Nash there would just make him a spot-up shooter. On the Lakers he could help direct the offense, teach Ramon Sessions (if we still have him) how to be a more elite PG, and either start or come off the bench for some instant offense. Neither team would have big spending room left, but at this point in his career if Nash wishes to win a title more than net a big contract that shouldn’t be a big problem.
However, if both the Pau-for-Bosh and Bynum-for-Dwight moves went down then we would have no chance at Deron Williams. Already the Nets aren’t too hot on Pau, but if Deron clearly stated he wanted to go to the Lakers, then getting Pau would really be one of the best bets for the Nets. A Pau and MarShon Brooks combo would be quite nice, (Gerald Wallace helps too) and they could mine the free agent pool for another decent player to insert into the group.
In the aftermath of the Lakers’ 2nd year in a row second-round exit it’s looking like there may be more trade options for Pau than originally thought. Some will help with the point guard situation (if the Lakers want a more elite player than Ramon Sessions, or he turns down his team option and goes someplace else) while others will close the door on it. Thus far here are what seem like the best bets (excluding draft picks, other players, and cash considerations which would be needed for most any trades to work):
- Pau to the Nets for Deron Williams (solves star PG problem)
- Pau to the Heat for Chris Bosh (solves mid-post/elbow PF issue with dominant big in Bynum/Howard)
- Pau to the Rockets for Luis Scola & Kyle Lowry (replaces with quality PF and budding star PG)
- Pau to the Timberwolves for Kevin Love (provides a younger, increasingly skilled star PF)
Pau to the Bulls for Carlos Boozer & C.J. Watson(Derrick Rose’s ACL tear just made keeping Watson essential to the Bulls)
It’s going to be quite a busy summer for the Lakers, primarily concerning Pau Gasol. While the Bynum situation is more black and white (a straight trade for Dwight Howard or just keep Bynum and extend him), the Gasol dilemma has many avenues to be explored before any major decisions are made.
This morning writer Sam Amick of Sports Illustrated reported that the Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic would do well to swap their star centers, and that Brooklyn Nets star point guard Deron Williams was allegedly increasingly interested in a possible trade to the Lakers (http://bit.ly/KzmkVJ). This got me thinking again about more Laker business transactions, and how it could possibly come together for a revamped championship-primed Laker team, and one prepared for a post-Kobe Bryant era.
IF Deron had the balls to tell the Nets he’s out then this can go down. However, there are more moving gears in place. The Magic and Lakers need to talk and get the Bynum-for-Howard deal done FIRST. This would close the door on the Nets possibly even asking for Bynum if they were willing to ship Deron out. Then the Nets would then have to agree to a sign-and-trade with the Lakers, though Gasol (and filler?) might be the only tradeable pieces. This might screw the Nets pretty bad, but it’s either they land Gasol as their marquee player (not great since the last time he was the ‘star’ on a team it was Memphis and he didn’t embrace the role) or just lose D-Will for nothing.
The big problem for the Lakers would (once again) be paying 3 stars big money and not having enough room to fill out the bench. That’s why much of this is a crazy pipe dream. We’d all love to have Deron Williams over Ramon Sessions but D-Will commands so much money that our bench would be crap.
IF The Lakers wanted to risk some big moves this could be the behind-closed-doors gamble they could pull:
* Go after Dwight Howard with a trade for Bynum, extend Dwight to a max five year deal:
At 4.5% annual raises from his $19.3 mil contract in 2012/13 that totals $105.4million through 2016/17
* Go after Deron Williams with a sign-and-trade for Gasol (and maybe another cheap player), extend Deron to a max five year deal:
At 4.5% annual raises from his $17.8 mil contract in 2012/13 that totals $97.3 million through 2016/17
* Plan to NOT re-sign Kobe after his contract ends after the 2013/14 season (when he’ll be 35) UNLESS he’s willing to take a severely discounted salary for 2 years (so he can retire at 37, a full 20 YEAR career), say about $5 mil a season (the Lakers can tell him this when his current contract is up– sneaky!
* Scout, scout, and SCOUT to find young, athletic, and cheap defensive and perimeter shooting pieces, though careful not to spend more than $2-4 mil on each, including the possibility of small trades.
Remember, only your most recent team can offer you the max 7.5% annual raises. Your new team can offer you only 4.5% maximum raises. If the player opts for a shorter contract (say 3 years) then at the end of that he can get a new contract with the team he’s been on with maximum 7.5% raises at that point. In other words, a longer deal NOW with shorter maximum raises would likely means the Lakers paying them less money through the next five years:
Through the 2012-13 season it’s $1 over the cap = $1 more in penalties. Going above the Salary Cap means you give your tax money (if any, otherwise just the league pays out ‘help’) to teams that are below the Salary Cap, but going over the Punitive Tax means you pay big time taxes.
Beginning with the 2013-14 season, tax rates for incremental spending above the tax level will increase as follows:
* $0-5 million over tax level – $1.50 for $1
* $5-10 million over tax level – $1.75 for $1
* $10-15 million over tax level – $2.50 for $1
* $15-20 million over tax level – $3.25 for $1
However, the repeater tax (in addition to the luxury tax, more punitive) kicks in for teams over the cap in 2014-15 onwards (multiple years over the cap). For each year REPEATING over the luxuy tax they have to ALSO pay these repeater penalties:
* $0-5 million over tax level – $1.50 for $1
* $5-10 million over tax level – $1.75 for $1
* $10-15 million over tax level – $2.50 for $1
* $15-20 million over tax level – $3.25 for $1
This still causes money worries for the Lakers (Almost $470 MILLION over the next 5 years!!), but can still be done if they’re willing to eat the taxes at different times to get all three stars together, and sunset Kobe Bryant in 2 years (or more if he’ll take a lesser paycut for 2 more years). It’s a big series of ‘what ifs’, gambles, and risks, but the Lakers have never been a team to shy away from the drama, risk-taking, and stardom of Los Angeles.